The Brazilian vowed to come back even stronger after being snubbed for the 2024 Golden Ball – but has looked well short of his usual brilliance.

Vinicius Jr would do it 10 times if he had to. At least, that’s what he told us. The Real Madrid winger, hours after being narrowly pipped to the 2024 Ballon d’Or by Manchester City’s Rodri, promised a glorious response. He would turn it on, find his groove, and prove to everyone that a mistake was made, that the wrong man won. Vinicius’ ‘Revenge Tour’ was on.
Except, not quite. Since that social media post, fired off on October 29, Vinicius has been well below his usual levels, with any Ballon d’Or bid seemingly on ice. There are somewhere between three and five players who are more likely to win it than him right now, with one of those a team-mate in Madrid.

And so we arrive at Los Blancos’ Champions League knockout play-off against Man City. Neither side really wants to be here, and if UEFA had their way, both would be waiting eagerly in the last 16 for the winner of one of these fixtures. But they will meet all the same – with one of the competition’s presumptive favourites going home before it feels like the real competition has begun.

This is the kind of moment that Vinicius was, presumably, talking about. The knockouts of these competitions are where Ballons d’Or are won, where the stars stand up. And while last year Vini felt he was the red-hot talent robbed of his trophy, he is now coming into a crucial fixture short of his best and with plenty to prove if he is to finally get his hands on the Golden Ball.

Robbed?

The 2024 Ballon d’Or has certainly come back into focus this week as Madrid travel to the Etihad Stadium. As a reminder: Real Madrid got word that Vinicius wouldn’t win, and were so outraged, that they boycotted the glitzy ceremony in Paris, went on a fairly aggressive media campaign brushing aside the whole thing as a nonsense, and did everything they could to prove that Vinicius was the best footballer in the world.
In truth, it really was a toss up. Petulance aside – and there was plenty of it – this felt like a rare football debate with nuance and valid points from both sides. Vinicius lost and Rodri won; it happens.

In response, Vinicius promised that he would show the world what he was made of. With Rodri already out for the season with an ACL tear at that point, and with Madrid among the favourites to win pretty much every competition they were in, all while Kylian Mbappe was struggling to settle at the Bernabeu, few were betting against the Brazilian being good to his word.

Awkward few months

Since then, though, things haven’t quite gone to plan. Vinicius hasn’t scored a La Liga goal in nearly three months. He was sent off against Valenica in January for a silly push and has picked up injuries which have forced him to miss a handful of games. When he has been on the pitch, he has made a few mistakes and lacked his usual cutting edge in front of goal. This would-be Ballon d’Or winner suddenly looks a bit off the pace. Ancelotti, for his part, backed his star man back in January.

Carlo Ancelotti has backed his man, but also addressed the thing that is not always brought up when discussing the Brazilian’s form. Vinicius is constantly abused, jeered, made fun of, and targeted by fans in Spain. So much is expected of him, and so much of his game requires your attention, but he result is an awkward mix of showmanship and exploitation. The footballing world is fascinated with Vinicius because he is so very talented. But his style, his swagger, and his outspokenness on the abuse he routinely receives, makes it, presumably, very hard to be Vinicius.

“When people talk about Vini provoking [opponents], they’re deflecting the focus from the insults he receives,” Ancelotti said. W”e all hear what happens on the pitch. It’s difficult for Vinícius… We’re delighted with Vinicius in every way.”

Main man Mbappe

On top of that, Vinicius’ drop in form has been amplified by the improvements shown by Mbappe. The France captain had a mixed few months to start his Madrid career, as he constantly floated towards the left wing when Ancelotti told him he was a No.9, leading to a tactical headach. His confidence low, Mbappe also started missing penalties for fun, while he seemingly cared even less about running than usual. There were genuine fears that this Galactico – being paid a tidy £150 million in a signing-on bonus alone – might have been a misuse of Florentino Perez’s cash.

Those fears still haven’t gone away, but performances can change perceptions quickly, and the reality is, Mbappe is finding his feet. He has now scored nine goals in his last eight games, including a crucial equaliser against Atletico Madrid on Saturday. He was named La Liga Player of the Month in January and is averaging 0.9 goals and assists per 90 minutes.
It comes as little coincidence, though, that this massive improvement began when Vinicius was out of the team. When the Brazilian was missing from the line up, Mbappe could roam more without worrying about getting his team-mate’s way. Sure, he still played as a striker, but a cheeky drift out to the left wing did him little harm.

Since Vinicius has returned from suspension, the duo haven’t quite clicked. In fact, in their first five months together, Mbappe and Vinicius have combined for just five goals – a subpar figure given the individual quality both possess.

Time to move on?

Ahead of the Madrid derby, it emerged that Vinicius had rejected a bumper contract extension offer from Real. The Brazilian is still under contract until 2027, an typically Madrid don’t begin discussions over new deals until there are two years remaining. It seems, then, that they are making an exception here.
And why wouldn’t they? Vinicius is 24-years-old, one of the best in the world, and only likely to get better. Mbappe sells a lot of shirts, and so too does Jude Bellingham, but zoom out and Vinicius has it all to be the leader of Madrid’s next great generation.

He is, therefore, the kind of player that needs pinning down to a long-term contract, presumably on the most favourable terms possible. That Vinicius has rejected Madrid’s first advance is equal parts concerning and unsurprising. Of course, this whole thing is going to be played out in broad daylight; Vinicius is far too high-profile to keep anything close. The attention on the club brought about by the arrival of Mbappe – not to mention his astronomical wages – is going to make every Bernabeu extension for the foreseeable future difficult to tie up, too.

There also remains the chatter that Saudi Arabian clubs are queuing up to make Vinicius the new face of the Pro League. He could make unimaginable money – reportedly a cool €1 billion – by moving to the Middle East, and still return to Europe in his prime should he so wish. Certainly, it is not beyond the realms of possibility for Vinicius to consider an exit this summer.

Answer the call

Vinicius, then, is at something of a crossroads. Ancelotti reportedly berated him and his Madrid team-mates at half-time of the Madrid derby after a pretty languid first-half display, while there was even isolated chatter that Luka Modric and others are sick of his attitude. The two-game suspension handed out for his red card in January was unfortunate – and perhaps unfair – but has only fuelled the fire. Evrything that can possibly go wrong seems to have done so for Vinicius in the past three months.

Man City, then, will be a challenge. Ancelotti admitted that the game has become something of a Champions League Clasico, given how frequently these two sides meet in the competition. It will probably be the best tie on the knockout play-offs – no matter how poor City are at the moment. Traditionally, these are the games Vinicius shows up in. His best performances in Madrid white have come in the latter stages of the Champions League. His record of nine goals in 20 knockout games since the start of 2021-22 is nothing special, but includes match-defining displays against Liverpool and Bayern Munich, as well as goals in two victorious finals.

Vinicius has his chance now, then, to kickstart his season. The revenge tour can get back on track at the home of the club whose midfielder broke his heart in October. But if he has another off night, more questions will undoubtedly be raised around an elite footballer who is struggling just when he promised greatness.