Is the Premier League title race almost over?

Liverpool’s win against Southampton on Sunday moved them eight points clear in top spot.

Only once has a team had a bigger lead after 12 games and that was Manchester United. Clear by nine, they went on to win the title in the 1993-94 season. Two other teams have led by eight points at this stage – Manchester City in 2017-18 and Liverpool in 2019-20 – and both were also crowned champions.

Liverpool’s haul of 31 points from the opening 12 matches has only been equalled or bettered 10 times in Premier League history. Eight of those clubs went on to win the title, with only Arsenal in 2022-23 and Newcastle in 1995-96 not celebrating at the end of the season after such an impressive start. There are more good signs for Liverpool as they bid to end Manchester City’s run of four successive title triumphs. Never before has a team lost five matches in a row – City’s current run – and become champions.

If Arne Slot’s side beat City at Anfield on Sunday, they would be 11 points clear of the holders – a deficit of that size has only been clawed back three times in the Premier League.

Title race over then right? Not necessarily. Has Liverpool’s start to the season been relatively favourable? Opta have calculated the Reds had the sixth easiest first 10 fixtures out of any of the Premier League sides. City’s start though was ranked as the fifth easiest, with the Gunners at the other end of the scale with the seventh toughest fixtures.

The lowest points tally a team had after 12 games but still went on to win the title was Manchester United with 19 in 1997. Pep Guardiola’s men lifted the crown in 2021 from having just 20 points at this stage. Four teams below Liverpool this season have more than that tally.

City and Arsenal – eight and nine points behind respectively – would also rightly highlight there are still 26 matches left to play and bigger leads have been lost before.

We look at the biggest deficits to have been clawed back by Premier League winners.